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Univ.-Prof. Dr. Henning Rust

Bildquelle: Andreas Wannenmacher, FU Berlin
Image Credit: Andreas Wannenmacher, FU Berlin

Freie Universität Berlin

Institute of Meteorology

Professor for Statistical Meteorology at the Freie Universität Berlin (DINP), group leader. Supported by the Freie Universität Berlin within the Excellence Initiative of the German Research Foundation.

Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10
Room 283/285 (new building)
12165 Berlin / GERMANY
+49-(0)30 838-471147

Research interests

  • Modelling weather impact

  • Citizen science projects for meteorology

  • Stochastic precipitation models

  • Stochastic parameterisations

  • Extreme convective events

  • Decadal prediction

  • Forecast verification
  • Statistical modelling (Circulation patterns: definition and comparison, Extreme value statistics, Statistical downscaling, air pollution modelling)

  • Time series analysis, Long-range dependence

Associated activities

since 04/2018

Deutsche Meteorologische Gesellschaft, head of executive board, section Berlin-Brandenburg, member of the full association’s executive committe.

since 2015

Member of the Management Board of the DFG graduate school Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World


Guest editor for Meteorologische Zeitschrift, special issue: Verification and process oriented validation of the MiKlip decadal prediction system.

since 2013

Member of the scientific advisory board of Statistical regionalisation models intercomparisons and hydrological impacts projects (StaRMIP), a French national research project, coordinated by M. Vrac, LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France


Member of the Steering Group of MiKlip, Germany's national initiative on decadal prediction


Guest editor for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (EGU), special issue: Extreme events: Nonlinear dynamics and time series analysis.


Academic positions

since 01/2019

Research Area Director for Optimal use of Information from Weather Forecast and Climate Monitoring for Society, and co-speaker of the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, a virtual research centre funded by the German Weather Service (DWD)

since 09/2015

Professor for Statistical Meteorology at the Freie Universitat Berlin (DINP), Institut für Meteorologie (FUB-IfM), Berlin, Germany. Co-leader of the working group Climate diagnostics and extreme meteorological events (CliDia) with U. Ulbrich

10/2013 - 08/2015

Assistant Professor at the FUB-IfM, Berlin, Germany. Co-leader of the working group Climate diagnostics and extreme meteorological events (CliDia) with U. Ulbrich. Coordinator of the validation activities for MiKlip, a joint research project for the development of a decadal prediction system funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

01/2012 - 09/2013

Senior researcher and lecturer at the FUB-IfM. Coordinator of the validation activities for MiKlip. From 12/2012 to 09/2013 on partial parental leave with 50% workload

02/2011 - 12/2011

Research associate (Post-Doc) and lecturer at the FUB-IfM. Stochastic modelling of precipitation at sub-daily time scales a project within the initiative Scaling cascades in complex systems from the Centre for scientific computing (CSC) at FUB

12/2009 - 01/2011

Parental leave and associated scientist at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette, France

06/2008 - 11/2009

Research associate (Post-Doc) in the project Regionalisation of precipitation and hydrological and agricultural impact of climate change on vulnerable regions (REGYNA) at the LSCE

10/2006 - 05/2008

Research associate (Post-Doc) in the project Extreme Events:
Causes and Consequences (E2C2) at the University of Potsdam,
Nonlinear Dynamics Group (AGNLD), Potsdam, Germany

09/2002 - 09/2006

Research associate (PhD) in the project Scaling and Trend Analy-
sis in Hydro-meteorological Time Series at the Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

04/2002 - 08/2002

Research associate at the International Centre for Integrative
Studies (ICIS), Maastricht, The Netherlands

Academic education


PhD in Theoretical Physics (summa cum laude) from the University
of Potsdam, Germany, thesis: Detection of long-range dependence - Applications in climatology and hydrology. In cooperation
with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
supervisor Prof. Dr. H.-J. Schellnhuber.


Diplom in Physics (very good) from the Albert-Ludwigs-
Universitat Freiburg, Germany, thesis: Model selection and pa-
rameter estimation in dynamic systems - Two applications (in
. In cooperation with the Institute of Plant Biochemistry
and the Freiburg Centre of Data Analysis and Modelling
(FDM), supervisor Prof. Dr. J. Timmer.


BSc with Honours in Physics from the Brock University,
St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada, thesis: Characterization of
DMPC/DHPC mixtures by 31P and 2H solid state NMR, supervisor
Prof. Dr. E. Sternin. Graduation with the Distinguished
Graduation Student Award for Physics

10/1997 - 05/1998

Studies of physics at the Brock University, St. Catharines, Ontario,

10/1994 - 05/2001

Studies of physics at the Albert-Ludwigs-Universitat Freiburg,


German (native), English (proficient), French and Italian (intermediate conversational)

Computer skills

Profound knowledge in environments for statistical computing
and graphics, such as R and Matlab, as well as in Unix/Linux
based operating systems and high performance computing (MPI,
OpenMP, job scheduling systems). Good knowledge in highlevel
programming languages (Java, C/C++), and in script languages
(Perl and Bash). Excellent command of word processing
(LATEX, Writer, Word), spread sheet applications (Calc, Excel),
vector/bitmap graphics manipulation and version control

Regular teaching activities

Meteorology Master (MSc.)

  • Statistische Modelle in den Geowissenschaften (Statistical models in geosciences)
(lecture 2hrs/week, computer lab 2hrs/week, regular assignments). Language: German. Skript.
  • Wetter- und Klimadiagnose (Weather and climate diagnostics)
A seminar for Meteorology major students: block on spatio-temporal variability (lecture 1×2h and computer lab 1×2h), associated seminar (2hrs/week), exams (written/oral). Language: German/English.
  • Meteorologische Extremereignisse (Meteorological extreme events)
Block on extreme value statistics (lecture 2×2h and computer lab 2×2h), associated seminar (2hrs/week), exams  (written/oral). Language: German. Skript, Folien.
  • Interdisziplinäre Naturrisikoforschung (Interdisziplinary Risk Research)
An interdisziplinary course on risk research taught together with psychologists and social scientists.

Meteorology Bachelor (BSc.)

  • Einführung in die Statistik und Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (Introduction to statistics and probability theory)
A course for Meteorology major students (lecture 2hrs/week, computer lab 2hrs/week, R-Course 2hrs/week), exams (written). Language: German. Skript.
  • Meteorologisches Instrumentenpraktikum (Meteorological instruments)
A lab course for Meteorology major students (lab course and seminar, 4hrs/week). Language: German. Wiki.

Extracurricular seminars

  • Introduction to modelling of extreme events

1-week block for PhD students. Script.


  • Hauptkomponentenanalyse
A short primer on principal components analysis (PCA), in German. Script, Folien.
  • Spectral Analysis of Stochastic Processes
A course given at the E2C2/GIACS Advanced School in Comorova, Romania in 2007. Script.


Bachelor's theses

Supervised Title
X Vergleich von hochaufgelösten Niederschlagsbeobachtungen an Hellmann und Kippwaage
X Qualität der dekadischen Vorhersage von Frosttagen im MPI-ESM-LR
X Analyse des Zusammenhangs der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO) und dem Pazifik-
Nordamerka-Telekonnektionsmuster (PNA)
X Beurteilung einer Abschätzung des geostrophischen Windes aus Druckdreiecken
X Untersuchung der (Un-)Wetterabhöngigkeit der Nutzung des Internets für Wetterinformation
X Klimawandel bezogen auf Wetterlagen
X Climate Extremes Indices - Berechnung für Berlin und Vergleich zu einem globalen Datensatz
X Regressionsanalysen zur Ableitung einer Optimal-Vorhersage, basierend auf der Kombination
von Kurzfristvorhersagen der Teilnehmer am Berliner Wetterturnier
X Analyse des variablen Zusammenhangs zwischen NAO und ENSO
X Windstauvorhersage für die Deutsche Bucht -- Probabilistische Modellierung und Verifikation
X Persistence of atmospheric blockings - An analysis of blocking duratins with the use of a
generalized linear model
X Point Vortex Dynamics and Atmospheric Blocking -- Analysis of an Automated Blocking
Classification Scheme

Master's and Diploma Theses

Supervised Title
X Saisonale Variation der Minimal- und Maximaltemperaturen in Europa
X Untersuchung saisonaler Variatin von Extremniederschlägen in Deutschland
mittels instationärer statistischer Modelle
X DSI und Niederschlag auf verschiedenen räumlichen Aggregationsstufen
X Untersuchung des Einflusses atmosphärischer Zirkulatinsmuster auf
Temperatur und Niederschlag in Europa mittels multipler linearer
X Index-basierte Charakterisierung der Zyklonenaktivität auf der
X Implementierung, Validierung und Untersuchung der Intensitäts-Andauer-
Beziehung eines stochastischen Niederschlagmodells
X Application of a flow field correction method to the Atlantic Ocean in
X Modulation des pazifischen Einflusses auf die Nordatlantische
Oszillation (NAO) durch die Atlantische Multidekaden-Oszillation (AMO)
X Einfluss der Orographie auf Extremniederschlag
X Drift Quantification and Adjustment in Decadal Predictions of Climate
Extremes Indices
X Regression Quantile Mapping -- A new approach to bias correction with
consistent quantile trends
X Von konvektiver zu stratiformer Struktur: Eigenschaften von Niederschlag
X Beurteilung des Windenergiepotentials unter unterschiedlichen RCP-
Szenarien am Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts im Raum der Metropolregion
Hannover-Braunschweig-Göttingen Wolfsburg
X Frostrisiko von Obstblüten im Klimawandel
X Markov Modelle für Blockierungen
X Low-Level Jets - Entstehungsmechanismen und Potential für die Windenergie

PhD Theses

Supervised Title
C The effect of meteorological hazards on dynamic vulnerability (Andreas Trojand, started 2021)
C An approach for the classification of European windstorms (Christian Passow, 2022, within the graduate research school Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World)
X Extreme Rainfall Events: Incorporating Temporal and Spatial Dependence to Improve Statistical Models, (Oscar Esli Jurado de Larios, 2022)
X Statistical Modelling of Extreme Precipitation on Different Timescales – Towards Consistent and More Efficient use of Available Data (Jana Ulrich, 2022, within the graduate research school Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World)
X Factors affecting the severity of European winter windstorms (Thomas Moran, 2020, within the graduate research school Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World)
X Detection and characterisation of atmospheric blockings and their influence on meteorological extremes in Europe
X Spatio-temporal response of extreme precipitation to climate change and decadal climate variability (Madlen Fischer, 2015, within the graduate research school Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World)
X Identification, decadal prediction and regionalisation of winter storms over Europe (Tim Kruschke, funded by BMBF, MiKlip, 2011-2015)
C Spatio-temporal precipitation patterns: from teleconnections to improved long-term forecasts (Diliara Willink, 2019)

Ongoing projects

BINGO -- Bringing INnovation to onGOing Water Management – A better Future under Climate Change

The project aims at providing practical knowledge and tools to water managers affected by climate change to better cope with climate projections and near-term climate predictions (decadal predictions). The work package led by the Institute of Meteorology of Freie Universität Berlin will particularly address hydrological extreme conditions within climate change scenarios and decadal climate predictions, focusing on six representative areas across Europe.

Homepage: www.projectbingo.eu

Project Scientists: Christos Vagenas, Edmund Meredith, Agbeko K. Kpogo-Nuwoklo

Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World 

A graduate research school with the University of Potsdam, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Helmholtz Centre Potsdam German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ.

  • I1: Natural hazards in a changing climate – What causes the variability?, A project together with Uwe Ulbrich, Project scientist: Thomas Moran

Effects of extreme teleconnection indices on climate parameters of Central Europe based on RCM simulations

A project together with Uwe Ulbrich.

Project scientist: Eftychia Rousi 


A project together with the German Weather Service (DWD).

Project scientist: Andy Richling

Coupling a multiscale stochastic precipitation model to large scale atmospheric flow is part of the Collaborative Research Center SFB1114: Scaling Cascades in Complex Systems. A stochastic precipitation model is investigated for means to be linked to atmospheric flow via the use of the Dynamic State Index (DSI). The project is carried out together with Peter Nevir (Theoretical Meteorology). Project scientists are Annette Müller and Christoph Ritschel.

MiKlip II (Mittelfristige Klimaprognose, second phase, since 2015) is the German initiative for decadal climate prediction funded by the Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), a research alliance in 5 modules:

  • ECO: Coordination of the process-oriented validation and forecast verification activities in MiKlip II (Module E). Development and Implementation of a drift correction framework
  • CALIBRATION: Re-Calibration of probabilistic decadal forecast
  • STOC: Storm-ocean interaction on decadal timescales


Finished projects


MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognose,since 2011) is the German initiative for decadal climate prediction funded by the Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), a research alliance with 35 projects in 5 modules (about 150 people involved): I am coordinating the evaluation and validation activities (MiKlip Module E) which are distributed over 11 projects (about 40 scientists). As such I am a member of the MiKlip steering committee. Besides coordinating this research alliance, setting guidelines for forecast verification approaches, organising workshops, maintaining a communication platform, I contribute to the following projects within MiKlip:

  • EnsDiVal: I am leading the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts of winter storm frequencies (Tim Kruschke) and frost days (Igor Kröner), an analysis of a potential systematic dependence of temperature forecast skill on height (Madlen Fischer), the development of a reliability diagram plugin for the central evaluation system (CES, Andreas Dobler), the development of a new set of indices to describe cyclone and winter storm densities (Bruno Schyska) and the representation of the AAO in the MiKlip system (Stella Babian). I furthermore design and author explanatory material for forecast verification tools.
  • INTEGRATION: I am involved in the design and test of the essential plugin MurCSS of the CES (Christopher Kadow, Sebastian Illing, Oliver Kunst). MurCSS implements the Module E guidelines for forecast verification on decadal time scales.
  • StepClim: I suggested the use of generalised linear and additive models for extreme convective event probabilities dependent on CAPE and wind shear and I am actively involved in the current analyses (Peter Groenemeijer, Georg Pistotnik @ ESSL).
  • VESPA: I am supporting the analysis of skill dependence on the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (Ines Höschel), the time series analysis of NAO and PNA (Alexander Pasternack), testing for a relation between NAO and PNA (Franz Landrock).
2012/2013 The relation between large scale circulation indices and European temperatures and precipitation, together with the German Weather Service (DWD). The result is used in the DWD's operational climate monitoring (Andy Richling).
Climate change and adaptation in Ethiopia, together with the PotsdamInstitute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and financed by the GermanMinistry of Foreign Affairs. Bias correction for temperature andprecipitation from GCMs/RCMs (Tim Kruschke, Madlen Fischer).
2008/2009 Regionalisation of precipitation, and hydrological and agricultural impact of climate change on vulnerable regions (REGYNA), a French national project led by B. Sultan. I participated during my post-doc at the LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France: development of a novel probabilistic assessment scheme for circulation patterns, precipitation modelling and downscaling with GLMs.
2007/2008 Modelling extreme precipitation. A case study for the UK, funded by a DAAD-BC travel grant. Several visits to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) in Norwich, UK. Extreme value models including the annual cycle
and vector generalised models to link extreme precipitation to large scale flow indices.
Extreme events, causes and consequences (E2C2), a Specific TargetedResearch Project (STREP) by the European Commission (FP-6) led byM. Ghil. I contributed with work to long-range dependence and its effecton extreme value statistics during my post-doc at the University of Potsdam, Germany.
2002-2006 Scaling and trend analysis in hydro-meteorological time series, a project with stakeholders from Hydrology, funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). I developed a novel test on long-range dependence and analysed trends in extreme values during my PhD project at the PIK.


ResearcherID: F-2961-2013

Accepted, under review or submitted

Published in peer-reviewed journals


Hohenegger, C., Ament, F., Beyrich, F., Löhnert, U., Rust, H., Bange, J., Böck, T., Böttcher, C., Boventer, J., Burgemeister, F., Clemens, M., Detring, C., Detring, I., Dewani, N., Duran, I. B., Fiedler, S., Göber, M., van Heerwaarden, C., Heusinkveld, B., Kirsch, B., Klocke, D., Knist, C., Lange, I., Lauermann, F., Lehmann, V., Lehmke, J., Leinweber, R., Lundgren, K., Masbou, M., Mauder, M., Mol, W., Nevermann, H., Nomokonova, T., Päschke, E., Platis, A., Reichardt, J., Rochette, L., Sakradzija, M., Schlemmer, L., Schmidli, J., Shokri, N., Sobottke, V., Speidel, J., Steinheuer, J., Turner, D. D., Vogelmann, H., Wedemeyer, C., Weide-Luiz, E., Wiesner, S., Wildmann, N., Wolz, K. and Wetz, T.: FESSTVaL: the Field Experiment on Submesoscale Spatio Temporal Variability in Lindenberg, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0330.1

Battaglioli, F., Groenemeijer, P., Púčik, T., Taszarek, M., Ulbrich, U. and Rust, H.: Modelled multidecadal trends of lightning and (very) large hail in Europe and North America (1950–2021), Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0195.1

Riebold, J., Richling, A., Ulbrich, U., Rust, H., Semmler, T. and Handorf, D.: On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe, Weather and Climate Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, 2023, Vol. 4(3), pp. 663-682. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023

Fauer, F. S. and Rust, H. W.: Non-stationary large-scale statistics of precipitation extremes in central Europe, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02515-z

Sieg, T., Kienzler, S., Rözer, V., Vogel, K., Rust, H., Bronstert, A., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. and Thieken, A. H.: Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments, Journal of Flood Risk Management, Wiley, 2023. http://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12889

Göber, M., Christel, I., Hoffmann, D., Mooney, C. J., Rodriguez, L., Becker, N., Ebert, E. E., Fearnley, C., Fundel, V. J., Geiger, T., Golding, B., Jeurig, J., Kelman, I., Kox, T., Magro, F.-A., Perrels, A., Postigo, J. C., Potter, S. H., Robbins, J., Rust, H., Schoster, D., Tan, M. L., Taylor, A. and Williams, H.: Enhancing the Value of Weather and Climate Services in Society: Identified Gaps and Needs as Outcomes of the First WMO WWRP/SERA Weather and Society Conference, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 2023, Vol. 104(3), pp. E645-E651. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0199.1


Caldas-Alvarez, A., Augenstein, M., Ayzel, G., Barfus, K., Cherian, R., Dillenardt, L., Fauer, F., Feldmann, H., Heistermann, M., Karwat, A., Kaspar, F., Kreibich, H., Lucio-Eceiza, E. E., Meredith, E. P., Mohr, S., Niermann, D., Pfahl, S., Ruff, F., Rust, H. W., Schoppa, L., Schwitalla, T., Steidl, S., Thieken, A. H., Tradowsky, J. S., Wulfmeyer, V., and Quaas, J.: Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022.

Becker, N., Rust, H.W. & Ulbrich, U. Weather impacts on various types of road crashes: a quantitative analysis using generalized additive models. Eur. Transp. Res. Rev. 14, 37 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00561-2

Becker, N., Rust, H.W. & Ulbrich, U. Modeling hourly weather-related road traffic variations for different vehicle types in Germany. Eur. Transp. Res. Rev. 14, 16 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00539-0

Otero, N., Jurado, O. E., Butler, T., and Rust, H. W.: The impact of atmospheric blocking on the compounding effect of ozone pollution and temperature: a copula-based approach, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1905-2022, 2022.

R. Polzin, A. Müller, H. W. Rust, P. Névir, P. Koltai: Direct Bayesian model reduction of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large scale dynamics, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-37-2022, 2022.


Otero, N., Rust, H. W. and Butler, T.: Temperature dependence of tropospheric ozone under NOx reductions over Germany, Atmospheric Environment, Elsevier BV, 2021, Vol. 253, pp. 118334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118334

F. Fauer, J. Ulrich, O. Jurado, H. W. Rust, Flexible and Consistent Quantile Estimation for Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves, Hydrol. Earth. Sys. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021

J. Ulrich, F. Fauer, H. W. Rust, Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different time scales in Germany, Hydrol. Earth. Sys. Sci., 25, 6133–6149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, 2021

T. Kox, H.W. Rust, B. Wentzel, M. Göber, C. Böttecher, J. Lehmke, E. Freundl, M. Garschagen, Build and measure: Students report weather impacts and collect weather data using self-built weather stations, Austral. J. Disaster Trauma Stud., 25 (3), 79-86, 2021

C. Detring, L. Schielicke, A. Müller, P. Névir, H.W. Rust, Occurrence and transition probabilities of Omega and High-over-Low blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region, Weather Clim Dynam., 2, 927-952, 2021

A. Pasternack, J. Grieger, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: Recalibrating Decadal Climate Predictions – What is an adequate model for the drift?, Geosci. Model Dev. 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021

E. P. Meredith, . Ulbrich, H. W. Rust, H. Truhetz: Present and future diurnal hourly precipitation in 0.11° EURO-CORDEX models and at convection-permitting resolution. Envir. Res. Comm. 3(5), 055002. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abf15e, 2021

C .Kadow, S. Illing, E. E. Lucio-Eceiza, M. Bergemann, M. Ramadoss, P. S. Sommer, O. Kunst, T. Schartner, K. Pankatz , J. Grieger, M. Schuster, A. Richling, H. Thiemann, I. Kirchner,  H. W. Rust, T. Ludwig, U. Cubasch, U. Ulbrich Introduction to Freva – A Free Evaluation System Framework for Earth System Modeling. J. Open Res. Software, 9(1) (2021)


N Becker, HW Rust, U Ulbrich: Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents
Natural hazards and earth system sciences 20 (10), 2857-2871

O. E. Jurado, J. Ulrich, M. Scheibel, H. W. Rust: Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves. Water 2020, 12, 3314.

J. Ulrich, O. E. Jurado, M. Peter, M. Scheibel, H. W. Rust: Estimating IDF Curves Consistently over Durations with Spatial Covariates. Water 2020, 12, 3119.

E. Rousi, H.W. Rust, U. Ulbrich, C. Anagnostopoulou: Winter NAO flavors and their effects on European climate.Climate, 2020


E. Meredith, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: The diurnal nature of future extreme precipitation intensification. Geophy. Res. Lett., 2019

Y. Liu, M. Donat, H. W. Rust, l. Alexander, M. England: Decadal predictability of temperature and precipitation means and extremes in a perfect-model experiment. Clim. Dyn, 2019

K. Fackeldey, P. Koltai, P. Névir, H. W. Rust, A. Schild, M. Weber: From Metastable to Coherent Sets – Time-Discretization Schemes. Chaos 29(1):012101, 2019


M. Fischer, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: A spatial and seasonal climatology of extreme precipitation return-levels: A case study. Spatial Statistics, 2018

S.Kremser, J. S. Tradowsky, H. W. Rust, G. E. Bodeker: Is it feasible to estimate radiosonde biases from interlaced measurements? Atmos. Measure. Tech., 11: 3021 - 3029, 2018

S. Liersch, J. Teckenburg, H. W. Rust, A. Dobler, M. Fischer, T. Kruschke, H. Koch, F. Hattermann: Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,2018

E. P. Meredith, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: A classification algorithm for selective dynamical downscaling of precipitation extremes, Hydrol. Earth. Syst. Sci., 22,4183 - 4200, 2018

N. Otero, J. Silmann, K. A. Mar, H. W. Rust, et al.: A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe. Atmos. Chem. Phys.,2018.

A. Pasternack, H. W. Rust, J. Bhend, M. Liniger, W. A. Müller: Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration, Geosci. Model Develop., 2018


M. Fischer, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes, Meteorol. Z. 2018, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2017/0845

C. Ritschel, H.W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: Precipitation extremes on multiple time scales -- Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model and Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

M. Walz, T. Kruschke, H. W. Rust, G. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich: Quantifying the extremity of windstorms for regions featuring infrequent events, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 2017, DOI: 10.1002/asl.758


S. Babian, H. W. Rust, K. Prömmel, J. Grieger, U. Cubasch: Representation of Antarctic Oscillation and related precipitation in the MPI Earth System Model, Meteorol. Z., 2016, 767-774, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2016/0661

F. Kaspar, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich and P. Becker: Verification and process oriented validation of the MiKlip decadal prediction system. Meteorol. Z., 629 - 630, 2016, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2016/0831

J. Marotzke, W. A. Müller, F. S. E. Vamborg, P. Becker, U. Cubasch, H. Feldmann, F. Kaspar, C. Kottmeier, C. Marini, I. Polkova, K. Prömmel, H. W. Rust, D. Stammer, U. Ulbrich, C. Kadow, A. Köhl, J. Kröger, T. Kruschke, J. G. Pinto, H. Pohlmann, M. Reyers, M. Schröder, F. Sienz, C. Timmreck, M. Ziese: MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1.

Otero Felipe, N., Sillmann, J., Schnell, J. L., Rust, H. W., Butler, T. M.: Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. - Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 2, 024005, 2016. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024005


T. Kruschke, H. W. Rust, C. Kadow, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich: Probabilistic evaluation of decadal predictions for Northern Hemisphere winter storms, Meteorol. Z., 2015, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2015/0641

C. Kadow, S. Illing, O. Kunst, H. W. Rust, H. Pohlmann, W. Müller, U. Cubasch: Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system, Meteorol. Z., 2015, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2015/0639

H. W. Rust, A. Richling, P. Bissolli, U. Ulbrich: Linking teleconnection patterns to European temperature – a multiple linear regression model. Meteorol. Z., 24, 411 - 423, 2015

H.W. Rust, T. Kruschke, A. Dobler, M. Fischer, U. Ulbrich. Discontinous daily temperatures in the WATCH forcing data sets. J. Hydrometeorol. 16(1):465-472, 2015, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0123.1


T. Kruschke, H. W. Rust, C. Kadow, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich: Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies. Tellus A 66, 22830, 2014, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v66.22830

V. Guemas, L. Auger, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H.W. Rust, A. Ribes: Dealing with data dependencies when applying statistical hypothesis tests for climate time series. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 95 (11), 1666-1667, 2014, See also related article.


H. W. Rust, M. Vrac, B. Sultan and M. Lengaigne: Mapping weather type influence on Senegal precipitation based on a spatio-temporal statistical model. J. Climate, 26, 8189-8209, 2013


D. Maraun, T.J. Osborn, H. W. Rust: The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part II: regional climate model and EOBS data validation. Clim. Dyn. 39:287-301, 2012


P. Yiou, B. D. Malamud, H. W. Rust: Preface "Extreme Events: Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series Analysis". Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 895-897, 2011

M. Ghil, P. Yiou, S. Hallegatte, B. D. Malamud, P. Naveau, A. Soloviev, P. Friederichs, V. Keilis-Borok, D. Kondrashov, V. Kossobokov, O. Mestre, C. Nicolis, H. W. Rust, P. Shebalin, M. Vrac, A. Witt, I. Zaliapin: Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 18, 295-350, 2011

D. Maraun, H. W. Rust, T.J. Osborn: The Influence of Synoptic Airflow on UK Daily Precipitation Extremes. PartI: Observed Spatio-Temporal Relations.Clim. Dyn., 36:261-275, 2011


H. W. Rust, M. Vrac, M. Lengaigne, B. Sultan: Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models.J. Climate, 23:6573-6589, 2010

P. Yiou, E. Bard, P. Dandin, B. Legras, P. Naveau, H. W. Rust, L. Terray, M. Vrac: Statistical Issues about Solar-Climate Relations.Clim. Past., 6:565-573, 2010

D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, A.M. Ireson, R.E. Chandler, E.J. Kendon, M. Widmann, S. Brienen, H. W.Rust, T. Sauter, M. Themeßl,V.K.C. Venema, K.P. Chun, C.M. Goodess, R.G. Jones, C. Onof, M. Vrac, I. Thiele-Eich: Precipitation Downscaling under Climate Change. Recent Developements to Bridge the Gap between Dynamical Models and the End User.Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3003, 2010

D. Maraun, H. W. Rust, T.J. Osborn: Synoptic airflow and UK daily precipitation extremes. Development and validation of a vector generalised linear model.Extremes, 13(2):133-153, 2010


H. W. Rust, D. Maraun, T.J. Osborn: Modelling Seasonality in Extreme Precipitation: A UK Case Study.Europ. Phys. J. Special Topics, 174:91-97, 2009

H. W. Rust: The Effect of Long-Range Dependence on Modelling Extremes with the Generalised Extreme Value Distribution.Europ. Phys. J. Special Topics, 174:99-111, 2009

D. Maraun, H. W. Rust, T.J. Osborn: The Annual Cycle of Heavy Precipitation Across the United Kinddom: A Model Based on Extreme Value Statistics.Int. J. Climatol., 29(12):1731-1744, 2009

2008 and earlier

H. W. Rust, O. Mestre, V.K.C Venema: Fewer Jumps, Less Memory: Homogenized Temperature Records and Long Memory.J. Geophys. Res., 113:D19110, 2008

V.K.C Venema, S. Bachner, H. W. Rust, C. Simmer: Statistical Characteristics of Surrogate Data based on Geophysical Measurements.Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 13:449-466, 2006

M. Kallache, H. W. Rust, J.P. Kropp: Trend assessment: Applications for hydrology and climate research.Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 12:201-210, 2005

M. Kallache, H. W. Rust and J. P. Kropp: Trend assessment: Applications for hydrology and climate research; Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 12:201–210, 2005.

D. Maraun, H. W. Rust, J. Timmer: Tempting Long-Memory - On the Interpretation of DFA Results.Nonlin. Proc. Geophys.,11:495-503, 2004

D. Maraun, W. Horbelt, H. W. Rust, J. Timmer, F. Drepper, H.P. Happersberger: Identification of Rate Constants and Non-Observable Absorption Spectra in Nonlinear Biochemical Dynamics. Int. J. Bif. Chaos, 14:(6)2081-2092, 2004

H.U. Voss, H. W. Rust, W. Horbelt, J. Timmer: A combined approach for the indentification of continuous non-linear systems.Int. J. Adapt. Contr. Signal. Process., 17:335-352, 2003

J. Timmer, H. W. Rust, W. Horbelt, H.U. Voss: Identification of a nonlinear circuit. Proc. Appl. Math. Mech., 1: 73–74, 2003, doi:10.1002/1617-7061(200203)

J. Timmer, H. W. Rust, W. Horbelt, H.U. Voss: Parametric, Nonparametric and Parametric Modelling of a Chaotic Circuit Time Series. Phys. Lett. A, 274:123-134, 2000

In monographs and conference proceedings

Kox, T., Göber, M., Wentzel B., Freundl, E., Rust, H. W.: Fostering weather and climate literacy among pupils by engagement in a weather citizen science project. Proceedings of Austrian Citizen Science Conference 2020 PoS(ACSC2020), 393, 002, 2021.

Rousi, E., Ulbrich, U., Rust, H. W., & Anagnostolpoulou, C.: An NAO Climatology in Reanalysis Data with the Use of Self-organizing Maps, in Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences (pp. 719-724), Springer International Publishing, 2017.

M. Fischer ,H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: Seasonal Extreme Value Statistics for Precipitation in Germany, EVAN 2013: Proceedings of the 1st International Short Conference on Advances in Extreme Value Analysis and Application to Natural Hazards, Forschungsinstitut Wasser und Umwelt (fwu) der Universität Siegen 144-152, 2014

H. W. Rust, M. Kallache, H.-J. Schellnhuber and J. P. Kropp: Confidence Intervals for Flood Return Level Estimation using a Bootstrap Approach, in J. Kropp and H.J. Schellnhuber (Eds.): In Extremis: Disruptive Events and Correlations in Hydrology and Climate, Springer, 2011

M. Kallache, H. W. Rust, H. Lange and J. Kropp: Extreme Value Analysis for Non-Stationary Data, in J. Kropp and H.J. Schellnhuber (Eds.): In Extremis: Disruptive Events and Correlations in Hydrology and Climate, Springer, 2011

M. Kallache, H. W. Rust, H.-J. Schellnhuber and J. P. Kropp: Trend Assessment of Correlated Data, Complexity and Integrated Resources Management, Transactions of the 2nd Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, iEMSs, Manno, Switzerland, 2004

H. U. Voss, M. Peifer, W. Horbelt, H. W. Rust and J. Timmer: Parametric, Nonparametric and Parametric Modeling of a Chaotic Circuit Time Series, NOLTA-Proceedings, 2:713-716, 2000

PhD Thesis

Detection of Long-Range Dependence – Applications in Climatology and Hydrology; H. W. Rust, 2007. Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany.



Software package farima for the environment for statistical computing R: Algorithms and tools for parameter estimation and model selection for long-memory processes. H. W. Rust, 2007

gaussDiff (also available on CRAN)

Software package gaussDiff for the environment for statistical computing R: A set of difference measures for multivariate Gaussian probability distributions. H. W. Rust, 2007