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Loss ratio [per thousand] accumulated over Germany for winter storm events from 1997-2016.

ClimXtreme - Module C Coordination (COO)

Uwe Ulbrich

Module C coordination and index clustering (COO) ClimXtreme Module C focuses on extreme events that have an impact on socio-economic systems. This means that it is not only a local extreme value of a meteorological parameter that is of interest, but the combination of specific environmental attributes that make it impact relevant. Module C includes nine projects and two associated projects covering different impacts and hazard types. The project COO coordinates Module C, supports individual projects to meet overarching module and ClimXtreme research questions and synthesizes results. Furthermore, the project COO aims to build and continuously expand a database on damaging weather conditions on the basis of past and recent observational datasets (reanalysis data) as well as recent and future climate model projections. This starts from well-established extreme indices and integrating novel extreme indices through collaboration with the other projects from Module C focusing on impacts of multiple hazards considered in Module C. The database allows to evaluate compound events of different types. The analysis of multivariate compounds, here the co-occurrence of extreme wind and precipitations shows the increased impact of such events in comparison to single extremes. As a key scientific question, the project COO will address such damaging weather events which are particularly relevant in the (re)insurance context. Further information : https://climxtreme.net/

Difference in % between the simulation periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 for the number of days showing a probability for rockfall that is higher than the climatological probability. Hatching denotes regions for which the signal is statistically signi

LASLI (ClimXtreme)

Uwe Ulbrich, Bodo Damm

Slope failure processes (e.g. landslides, rockfall) in Central Europe are associated with high damage on road, railway and building infrastructure as well as casualties. While the general susceptibility for such events is determined by geological and geophysical conditions, meteorological factors frequently determine the triggering of the hazard. High moisture preconditions, intensive precipitation and processes related to frost have been identified as important triggers. Based on landslide and rockfall records, the contribution of the meteorological factors on the frequency of slope failure events in the German low mountain regions was determined. Changes in the occurrence probabilities of such events under climate change conditions are investigated using multi-model ensemble of regional climate scenario simulations. Under RCP8.5 scenario conditions rockfall probability in the study region is likely to decrease while landslides are expected to become more frequent. LASLI is a subproject within ClimXtreme. It is conducted in collaboration with the research group  Applied Physical Geography at the University of Vechta. Publications: K.M. Nissen, S. Rupp, T.M. Kreuzer, B. Guse, B. Damm and U. Ulbrich, 2022: Quantification of meteorological conditions for rockfall triggers in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022 . K.M. Nissen, M., Wilde, M., Kreuzer, T. M., Wohlers, A., Damm, B., and Ulbrich, U.: A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-94 , 2023. (under review)

Sturmklima Hessen

Uwe Ulbrich

In a changing climate, with increasing temperatures and moisture, the extratropical circulation will likely change, and so will the dynamics of North Atlantic windstorms. Extratropical storms may take different paths than in the past, and show modified characteristics such as their frequency, intensity, lifetime, or extent. However, these changes of storm characteristics and impacts, especially on the regional scale, still exhibit substantial uncertainties due to low confidence in the underlying changes of the circulation and storm tracks in a changing climate - partly because the interannual variability is larger than climate change related trends but also because previous analyses are based coarse resolution simulations and/or single model studies. This project “Sturmklima Hessen”, funded by HLNUG (Hessisches Landesamt für Naturschutz, Umwelt und Geologie), aims to address these issues. It aims to estimate the spread of possible developments regarding the storm risk and its impacts for the federal state of Hessen, Germany in a changing climate. A multitude of global and regional climate simulations is evaluated, including spatially and temporally higher resolved models preferably in large ensembles, to draw robust conclusions on expected changes using different warming scenarios. In cooperation with the GDV (Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft) the storm induced loss on residential buildings will be related to the wind speed of model and observation based data using deterministic and probabilistic statistical models. The impact of the resolution of the model on the representation of the storm climate is explored and particularly ruinous episodes as well as categorized storm events are downscaled to estimate the range of losses. Seasonal and decadal predictions are considered as well as high resolved (regional) climate experiments.