ClimXtreme - Module C Coordination (COO)
Module C coordination and index clustering (COO) ClimXtreme Module C focuses on extreme events that have an impact on socio-economic systems. This means that it is not only a local extreme value of a meteorological parameter that is of interest, but the combination of specific environmental attributes that make it impact relevant. Module C includes nine projects and two associated projects covering different impacts and hazard types. The project COO coordinates Module C, supports individual projects to meet overarching module and ClimXtreme research questions and synthesizes results. Furthermore, the project COO aims to build and continuously expand a database on damaging weather conditions on the basis of past and recent observational datasets (reanalysis data) as well as recent and future climate model projections. This starts from well-established extreme indices and integrating novel extreme indices through collaboration with the other projects from Module C focusing on impacts of multiple hazards considered in Module C. The database allows to evaluate compound events of different types. The analysis of multivariate compounds, here the co-occurrence of extreme wind and precipitations shows the increased impact of such events in comparison to single extremes. As a key scientific question, the project COO will address such damaging weather events which are particularly relevant in the (re)insurance context. Further information : https://climxtreme.net/
Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust
Das Projekt zielt auf ein verbessertes Verständnis der Mechanismen ab, die die Verbindungen zwischen den arktischen Klimaänderungen, Veränderungen der großräumigen atmosphärischen Zirkulation (bezüglich der Variabilität und Häufigkeit und Stärke von Wettersystemen) und den ...
Precipitation Extremes: Linking Consistent Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relation to Large Scale Atmospheric Flow (IDF-AF) Precipitation events can have very different characteristics, from long-lasting light drizzle to short but intense precipitation. For every precipitation event duration, ...
The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are critical factors for the assessment of future impacts due to rainfall extremes. Other event characteristics can also play an important role: for example, the duration, spatial extent and areal precipitation volume of the event. To fully ...
Uwe Ulbrich, Bodo Damm
Slope failure processes (e.g. landslides, rockfall) in Central Europe are associated with high damage on road, railway and building infrastructure as well as casualties. While the general susceptibility for such events is determined by geological and geophysical conditions, meteorological factors frequently determine the triggering of the hazard. High moisture preconditions, intensive precipitation and processes related to frost have been identified as important triggers. Based on landslide and rockfall records, the contribution of the meteorological factors on the frequency of slope failure events in the German low mountain regions was determined. Changes in the occurrence probabilities of such events under climate change conditions are investigated using multi-model ensemble of regional climate scenario simulations. Under RCP8.5 scenario conditions rockfall probability in the study region is likely to decrease while landslides are expected to become more frequent. LASLI is a subproject within ClimXtreme. It is conducted in collaboration with the research group Applied Physical Geography at the University of Vechta. Publications: K.M. Nissen, S. Rupp, T.M. Kreuzer, B. Guse, B. Damm and U. Ulbrich, 2022: Quantification of meteorological conditions for rockfall triggers in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022 . K.M. Nissen, M., Wilde, M., Kreuzer, T. M., Wohlers, A., Damm, B., and Ulbrich, U.: A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-94 , 2023. (under review)
Uwe Ulbrich, Nico Becker, Marc Hanewinkel
Winter windstorms are among the most dangerous and costly natural hazards in Central Europe. Compared to convective events, the large extent of affected areas makes them particularly relevant in terms of the risks from both an insurance and an economic point of view. In this project we try to improve the analysis of weather patterns and -sequences leading to wind-induced damages for three different types of storm impacts, namely building damages, forestry damages and railway disruption risks as an example for (secondary) damages due to wind throw. We are using mechanistic as well as statistical models to examine critical wind speeds and the impact of other metrological factors like precipitation or storm length on storm damage. Furthermore we investigate changes in the intensities and frequencies of these metrological factors and of subsequent damage probabilities in the past as well as in future climate scenarios. WIND is a subproject within ClimXtreme. It is conducted in collaboration with the research group Forestry Economics and Forest Planning at the University of Freiburg. Project website: https://climxtreme.net/
Climate and Water under Change
Die Einstein Research Unit Climate and Water under Change (CliWaC) ist eine transdisziplinäre Forschungsinitiative der Berlin University Alliance.Diese untersucht wasserbezogene Risiken des Klimawandels im Raum Berlin-Brandenburg. Am Institut für Meteorologie untersuchen wir die ...
Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World
A graduate research school with the University of Potsdam, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Helmholtz Centre Potsdam German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ. P3: Spatio-temporal response of extreme precipitation to climate change and decadal climate variability I1: ...
SpreeWasser:N zielt auf die Entwicklung innovativer Werkzeuge, Strategien und Handlungsoptionen (Best-Practice-Beispiele) für ein integriertes Wasserressourcenmanagement in der Region Berlin-Brandenburg ab. Die Region weist eines der höchsten Wasserdefizite in Deutschland auf. Ziel des ...
In a changing climate, with increasing temperatures and moisture, the extratropical circulation will likely change, and so will the dynamics of North Atlantic windstorms. Extratropical storms may take different paths than in the past, and show modified characteristics such as their frequency, intensity, lifetime, or extent. However, these changes of storm characteristics and impacts, especially on the regional scale, still exhibit substantial uncertainties due to low confidence in the underlying changes of the circulation and storm tracks in a changing climate - partly because the interannual variability is larger than climate change related trends but also because previous analyses are based coarse resolution simulations and/or single model studies. This project “Sturmklima Hessen”, funded by HLNUG (Hessisches Landesamt für Naturschutz, Umwelt und Geologie), aims to address these issues. It aims to estimate the spread of possible developments regarding the storm risk and its impacts for the federal state of Hessen, Germany in a changing climate. A multitude of global and regional climate simulations is evaluated, including spatially and temporally higher resolved models preferably in large ensembles, to draw robust conclusions on expected changes using different warming scenarios. In cooperation with the GDV (Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft) the storm induced loss on residential buildings will be related to the wind speed of model and observation based data using deterministic and probabilistic statistical models. The impact of the resolution of the model on the representation of the storm climate is explored and particularly ruinous episodes as well as categorized storm events are downscaled to estimate the range of losses. Seasonal and decadal predictions are considered as well as high resolved (regional) climate experiments.
Mit einem inter- und transdisziplinären Ansatz betrachten Meteorologen und Sozialwissenschaftler Wetterwarnungen und ihre Wahrnehmung und Nutzung durch Akteure des Bevölkerungsschutzes, Behörden und betroffene Bürger. Der Schwerpunkt in der ersten Förderphase liegt auf Sturm- und Gewitterereignissen für die Stadt Berlin. Unser Ziel ist es, den Warnprozess und die Kommunikation von Warnungen zu verbessern, um wetterbedingte Schäden zu vermindern. Ein Schwerpunkt hierbei ist der Umgang mit der Unsicherheit von Wetterwarnungen. In Zusammenarbeit mit dem DWD und Nutzern der Warnungen erarbeiten wir Empfehlungen für endnutzerorientierte Informationsprodukte. Das Projekt WEXICOM bearbeitet als Teil des " Hans-Ertel-Zentrum für Wetterforschung " des Deutschen Wetterdienstes im Themenbereich 5: "Optimale Anwendung von Wettervorhersagen".