WP3: Organizational practices for anticipating and reaction to future weather events
Since the communication of forecast uncertainty allows the weather services to provide information on a potentially severe weather event at an earlier point in time (Hirschberg et al., 2011), possible (coping) measures can be started at an earlier point in time. However, this shift from the coping phase to the preparation phase does not necessarily correspond to the current often reactive approach of civil protection and other users (Demeritt, 2012, Kox et al., 2018).
We want to explore the missing link between pre-event coordination and post-event coping (Anderson, 2010, Baker, 2014), to analyze how forecasting uncertainty is incorporated into organizational decisions and practices, and to continue the theoretical discussion of (organizational) practices in the context of weather forecasting and warning.
In this work package the following research questions will be addressed: Which practices result from the shift from the coping to the preparatory phase? How can we put new methods for vulnerability and risk assessment into practice and how can their measures be supported by probabilistic and impact-based weather information?
The results will help to understand the reactions and actions of key alert recipients and thus improve the usefulness of weather alerts as a final step in the alert chain.