Landslides in a changing climate (LASLI)
Slope failure processes (e.g. landslides, rockfall) in Central Europe are associated with high damage on road, railway and building infrastructure as well as casualties. While the general susceptibility for such events is determined by geological and geophysical conditions, meteorological factors frequently determine the triggering of the hazard. High moisture preconditions, intensive precipitation and processes related to frost have been identified as important triggers.
Based on landslide and rockfall records, the contribution of the meteorological factors on the frequency of slope failure events in the German low mountain regions was determined. Changes in the occurrence probabilities of such events under climate change conditions are investigated using multi-model ensemble of regional climate scenario simulations. Under RCP8.5 scenario conditions rockfall probability in the study region is likely to decrease while landslides are expected to become more frequent.
LASLI is a subproject within ClimXtreme. It is conducted in collaboration with the research group Applied Physical Geography at the University of Vechta.
K.M. Nissen, S. Rupp, T.M. Kreuzer, B. Guse, B. Damm and U. Ulbrich, 2022: Quantification of meteorological conditions for rockfall triggers in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022.
K.M. Nissen, M., Wilde, M., Kreuzer, T. M., Wohlers, A., Damm, B., and Ulbrich, U.: A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-94, 2023. (under review)