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Near-term (sub-decadal) variability in storm activity in the North-Atlantic-European region

15.07.2017 — 14.07.2019

In collaboration with our long-term industry partner CoreLogic we aim for a better understanding of climate variability in terms of the activity of extratropical wind storms with special focus on the North Atlantic-European region. On near-term to sub-decadal timescales we examine the predictability of the activity of European extratropical wind storms and its relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and other steering processes. Aspects such as the representation of extreme events statistics in climate models and the prediction potential in terms of frequency, clustering, severity and location are investigated through Earth System Model simulations covering the last millennium.