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Paper (peer-reviewed)


Becker, N., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U. (in review): Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-10

Fleischhut, N., S.M. Herzog, and R. Hertwig (2020): Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change. Wea. Climate Soc., 12, 435–452, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0043.1


Becker, N., Rust, H. W, Ulbrich, U. (submitted): Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

Fundel, V. J., Fleischhut, N., Herzog, S. M., Göber, M., & Hagedorn, R. (2019). Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue between scientists, developers, and end-users. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Societydoi.org/10.1002/qj.3482


Ebert, E.; Brown, B.; Göber, M.; Haiden, T.; Mittermaier, M.; Nurmi, P.; Wilson, L.; Jackson, S.; Johnston, P.; Schuster, D. (2018): The WMO Challenge to Develop and Demonstrate the Best New User-Oriented Forecast Verification Metric. Meteorologische Zeitschrift.

Pardowitz, T. (2018): A statistical model to estimate the local vulnerability to severe weather. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18 (6), 1617–1631.

Kox, T. (2018): Unsicherheit in Warnungen vor hydro-meteorologischen Extremereignissen. Geographische Rundschau, 7-8, pp. 30-33.

Kox, T. (2018): Perception and use of uncertainty in severe weather warnings. Doktorarbeit, Universität Potsdam. urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411541.

Kox, T.; Lüder, C.; Gerhold, L. (2018): Anticipation and Response. Emergency Services in Severe Weather Situations in Germany. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 9 (1), pp. 116–128.

Taylor, A.; Kox, T.; Johnston, D. (2018): Communicating High Impact Weather: Improving warnings and decision making processes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, Part A, pp. 1-4.

Kox, T.; Kempf, H.; Lüder, C.; Hagedorn, R.; Gerhold, L. (2018): Towards user-orientated weather warnings. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, Part A, pp. 74-80.


Zschenderlein, P., T. Pardowitz, U. Ulbrich (2017): Application of an Object-based Verification Method to Ensemble Storm Forecasts, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, in review, 2018.

Kox, T; Thieken, A.H. (2017): To act or not to act? Factors influencing the general public's decision about whether to take protective action against severe weather. Weather, Climate and Society, 9 (2) pp. 299–315.


Pardowitz, T., Osinski, R., Kruschke, T., and Ulbrich, U. (2016): An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2391-2402

Pardowitz, T.; Befort, D. J.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U. (2016): Estimating uncertainties from high resolution simulations of extreme wind storms and consequences for impacts, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25 (5), 531–541

Simmer, C.; Adrian, G.; Jones, S.; Wirth, V.; Göber, M.; Hohenegger, C.; Janjic, T.; Keller, J.; Ohlwein, C.; Seifert, A.; Trömel, S.; Ulbrich, T.; Wapler, K.; Weissmann, M.; Keller, J., Masbou, M.; Meilinger, S.; Riß, N.; Schomburg, A.; Vormann, A.; Weingärtner, C. (2016): HErZ - The German Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 97 (6), pp. 1057–1068.


Wapler, K., Harnisch, F., Pardowitz, T. und Senf, F. (2015): Characterisation and predictability of a severe convective event – a multi-data approach. Meteorologische Zeitschrift , 24, pp. 393 – 410.

Pardowitz, T.; Kox, T.; Göber, M. & A. Bütow (2015): Human estimates of warning uncertainty: numerical and verbal descriptions, Mausam 66 (3), pp. 625-634.

Kox, T. (2015): Criteria affecting people’s decision to take protective measures during winter storm XAVER on 5 December 2013. In: Palen, Büscher, Comes, Hughes (Eds.): Proceedings of the ISCRAM 2015 Conference, Kristiansand.

Kox, T.; Gerhold, L. & U. Ulbrich (2015): Perception and use of uncertainty in severe weather warnings by emergency services in Germany.  Atmos. Res.158-159, pp. 292-301.


Weissmann, M., Göber, M.,  Hohenegger, C., Janjic, T.,  Keller, J., Ohlwein, C., Seifert, A., Trömel, S., Ulbrich, T., Wapler, K., Bollmeyer, C., Deneke, H. (2014): The Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research – Research objectives and highlights from its first three years. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 23 (3), pp. 193-208.


Ebert, E.; Wilson, L.; Weigel, A.; Mittermaier, M.; Nurmi, P.; Gill, P.; Göber, M.; Joslyn, S.; Brown, Fowler, B. & A. Watkins, (2013): Progress and challenges in forecast verification. Met. Applications. 20, pp. 130–139.


Wapler, K.; Göber, M. & S. Trepte (2012): Comparative verification of different nowcasting systems to support optimisation of thunderstorm warnings, Adv. Sci. Res. 8, pp. 121–127.