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Paper (peer-reviewed)


Schmidt, Tietze, Gerhold, Kox (2022): “They just won’t listen” - The role of blame in narratives of past extreme weather events for anticipating future crisisJournal of Contingencies and Crisis Management.

Schmidt, Tietze, Gerhold, Kox (2022): Requirements for the use of impact-based forecasts by road maintenance services in GermanyAdvances in Science and Research 19 , 97–103.

Scolobig, Potter, Kox, Kaltenberger, Weyrich, Chasco, Golding, Hilderbrand, Fleischhut, Uprety, Rana (2022): Connecting warning with decision and action: a partnership of communicators and users , Golding (Ed.) Towards the “Perfect” Weather Warning: Bridging Disciplinary Gaps through Partnership and Communication , 47-85 , Springer: Cham.

Becker, N., Rust, H.W. & Ulbrich, U. (2022): Weather impacts on various types of road crashes: a quantitative analysis using generalized additive models. Eur. Transp. Res. Rev. 14, 37 . https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00561-2

Becker, N., Rust, H.W., Ulbrich, U. (2022). Modeling hourly weather-related road traffic variations for different vehicle types in Germany. European Transport Research Review, 14(16), DOI: 10.1186/s12544-022-00539-0

Schmidt, J., Tietze, N., Gerhold, L. and Kox, T. (2022): “They just won’t listen” - The role of blame in narratives of past extreme weather events for anticipating future crisis, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12435

Schmidt, J., Tietze, N., Gerhold, L. and Kox, T. (accepted to publish): Requirements for the use of impact-based forecasts and warnings by road maintenance services in Germany, Advances in Science and Research. 19, 97-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-97-2022

Li, Y.Luan, S., Li, Y., Wu, J., Li, W., & Hertwig, R. (2022). Does risk perception motivate preventive behavior during a pandemic? A longitudinal study in the United States and China. American Psychologist77(1), 111–123. https://doi.org/10.1037/amp0000885

Schulze, C., & Hertwig, R. (2022). Experiencing statistical information improves children’s and adults’ inferences. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-022-02075-3

Wegwarth, O., Ludwig, W.-D., Spies, C., Schulte, E., & Hertwig, R. (2022). The role of simulated-experience and descriptive formats on perceiving risks of strong opioids: A randomized controlled trial with chronic noncancer pain patients. Patient Education and Counseling105(6), 1571–1580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pec.2021.10.002

Scolobig, A., Potter, S., Kox, T., Kaltenberger, R., Weyrich, P., Chasco, J., Golding, B., Hilderbrand, D., Fleischhut, N., Uprety, D., & Rana, B. (2022). Connecting warning with decision and action: A partnership of communicators and users. In B. Golding (Ed.), Towards the “perfect” weather warning: Bridging disciplinary gaps through partnership and communication (pp. 47–85). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7_3

Möhrlen, C., Bessa, R. J., &  Fleischhut, N. (2022). A Decision-Making Experiment under Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty. Meteorological Applications29(3), Article e2077. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2077

Schneider, M., McDowell, M., Guttorp, P., Steel, E. A., & Fleischhut, N. (2022). Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences22(4), 1499–1518. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022

Leuker, C.Eggeling, L. M.Fleischhut, N.Gubernath, J.Gumenik, K.Hechtlinger, S.Kozyreva, A.Samaan, L., & Hertwig, R. (2022). Misinformation in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional survey on citizens’ perceptions and individual differences in the belief in false information. European Journal of Health Communication3(2), 13–39. https://doi.org/10.47368/ejhc.2022.202

Möhrlen, C., Giebel, G., Bessa, R. J., & Fleischhut, N. (2022). How do humans decide under wind power forecast uncertainty: An IEA wind task 36 'Probabilistic Forecast Games and Experiments' initiative. Journal of Physics: Conference Series2151, Article 012014. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2151/1/012014


Neisser, Kox (2021): Zur Verankerung von Zukunft in der Gefahrenabwehr. Antizipationspraktiken und Herausforderungen im Kontext von FeuerwehrenZeitschrift für Zukunftsforschung (1), 158-181. urn:nbn:de:0009-32-53710

Kox, Lüder (2021): Impacts as triggers for weather-related decision-making: Observations at the Berlin Fire Brigade Control and Dispatch CenterInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 12 (4), 610-615.

Hertwig, R., & Wulff, D. U. (2021). A description-experience framework of the psychology of risk. Perspectives on Psychological Science17(3), 631–651. https://doi.org/10.1177/17456916211026896

Kox, T., Lüder, C. Impacts as Triggers for Weather-Related Decision Making: Observations at the Berlin Fire Brigade Control and Dispatch Center. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00356-4

Kox, T., Rust, H. W., Wentzel, B., Göber, M., Böttcher, C., Lehmke, J., Freundl, E., Garschagen, M., (accepted, subject to minor revisions): Build and Measure: First experience with an innovative citizen science approach, with pupils using self-built micro weather stations to collect weather data and report event impacts. Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies.


Nissen, K. M., Becker, N., Dähne, O., Rabe, M., Scheffler, J., Solle, M., & Ulbrich, U. (2020). How does weather affect the use of public transport in Berlin?. Environmental Research Letters, 15(8), https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8ec3

Becker, N.Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U., 2020 : Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-202

Becker, N., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U. (2020): Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020

Fleischhut, N., S.M. Herzog, and R. Hertwig (2020): Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change. Wea. Climate Soc., 12, 435–452, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0043.1

Möhrlen, C., Fleischhut, N., and Besser, R. (under Review): Decision-Making Experiment under Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty.


Fundel, V. J., Fleischhut, N., Herzog, S. M., Göber, M., & Hagedorn, R. (2019). Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue between scientists, developers, and end-users. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Societydoi.org/10.1002/qj.3482


Meder, B.Fleischhut, N., & Osman, M. (2018). Beyond the confines of choice architecture: A critical analysis. Journal of Economic Psychology68, 36–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.08.004

Hertwig, R., Hogarth, R. M., & Lejarraga, T. (2018). Experience and description: Exploring two paths to knowledge. Current Directions in Psychological Science27(2), 123–128. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721417740645 

Ebert, E.; Brown, B.; Göber, M.; Haiden, T.; Mittermaier, M.; Nurmi, P.; Wilson, L.; Jackson, S.; Johnston, P.; Schuster, D. (2018): The WMO Challenge to Develop and Demonstrate the Best New User-Oriented Forecast Verification Metric. Meteorologische Zeitschrift.

Pardowitz, T. (2018): A statistical model to estimate the local vulnerability to severe weather. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18 (6), 1617–1631.

Kox, T. (2018): Unsicherheit in Warnungen vor hydro-meteorologischen Extremereignissen. Geographische Rundschau, 7-8, pp. 30-33.

Kox, T. (2018): Perception and use of uncertainty in severe weather warnings. Doktorarbeit, Universität Potsdam. urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411541.

Kox, T.; Lüder, C.; Gerhold, L. (2018): Anticipation and Response. Emergency Services in Severe Weather Situations in Germany. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 9 (1), pp. 116–128.

Taylor, A.; Kox, T.; Johnston, D. (2018): Communicating High Impact Weather: Improving warnings and decision making processes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, Part A, pp. 1-4.

Kox, T.; Kempf, H.; Lüder, C.; Hagedorn, R.; Gerhold, L. (2018): Towards user-orientated weather warnings. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, Part A, pp. 74-80.


Zschenderlein, P., T. Pardowitz, U. Ulbrich (2017): Application of an Object-based Verification Method to Ensemble Storm Forecasts, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, in review, 2018.

Kox, T; Thieken, A.H. (2017): To act or not to act? Factors influencing the general public's decision about whether to take protective action against severe weather. Weather, Climate and Society, 9 (2) pp. 299–315.


Pardowitz, T., Osinski, R., Kruschke, T., and Ulbrich, U. (2016): An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2391-2402

Pardowitz, T.; Befort, D. J.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U. (2016): Estimating uncertainties from high resolution simulations of extreme wind storms and consequences for impacts, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25 (5), 531–541

Simmer, C.; Adrian, G.; Jones, S.; Wirth, V.; Göber, M.; Hohenegger, C.; Janjic, T.; Keller, J.; Ohlwein, C.; Seifert, A.; Trömel, S.; Ulbrich, T.; Wapler, K.; Weissmann, M.; Keller, J., Masbou, M.; Meilinger, S.; Riß, N.; Schomburg, A.; Vormann, A.; Weingärtner, C. (2016): HErZ - The German Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 97 (6), pp. 1057–1068.


Wapler, K., Harnisch, F., Pardowitz, T. und Senf, F. (2015): Characterisation and predictability of a severe convective event – a multi-data approach. Meteorologische Zeitschrift , 24, pp. 393 – 410.

Pardowitz, T.; Kox, T.; Göber, M. & A. Bütow (2015): Human estimates of warning uncertainty: numerical and verbal descriptions, Mausam 66 (3), pp. 625-634.

Kox, T. (2015): Criteria affecting people’s decision to take protective measures during winter storm XAVER on 5 December 2013. In: Palen, Büscher, Comes, Hughes (Eds.): Proceedings of the ISCRAM 2015 Conference, Kristiansand.

Kox, T.; Gerhold, L. & U. Ulbrich (2015): Perception and use of uncertainty in severe weather warnings by emergency services in Germany.  Atmos. Res.158-159, pp. 292-301.


Weissmann, M., Göber, M.,  Hohenegger, C., Janjic, T.,  Keller, J., Ohlwein, C., Seifert, A., Trömel, S., Ulbrich, T., Wapler, K., Bollmeyer, C., Deneke, H. (2014): The Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research – Research objectives and highlights from its first three years. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 23 (3), pp. 193-208.


Ebert, E.; Wilson, L.; Weigel, A.; Mittermaier, M.; Nurmi, P.; Gill, P.; Göber, M.; Joslyn, S.; Brown, Fowler, B. & A. Watkins, (2013): Progress and challenges in forecast verification. Met. Applications. 20, pp. 130–139.


Wapler, K.; Göber, M. & S. Trepte (2012): Comparative verification of different nowcasting systems to support optimisation of thunderstorm warnings, Adv. Sci. Res. 8, pp. 121–127.