Scenarios

High population density in the Gina River catchment;
High population density in the Gina River catchment;
Image Credit: Reiche, St. 2003

In order to provide a base for regional planning two scenarios of future developments in the Gina River catchment were developed. Both are based on the assumption that population will doubling until 2020 like in most areas of Ethiopia. The developed scenarios sketch the possible impact of such a demographic development on the environment. Scenarios include different assumptions on changes in land uses and soil conservation measures as well as on pattern and density of settlements, tracks and roads. The possibility of climate changes are not considered here. Soil erosion risk in the Gina River catchment under the conditions of a doubled population in 2020 is assessed by implementing these scenarios into the semi-quantitative modelling approach (modelling equation). See how Gina River catchment develops until 2020 in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.