From weather extremes to societal impacts - What can we learn from observations?
Weather extremes can cause considerable direct economic damage or displacement and their impact can even be detected on macroeconomic level. Human climate forcing is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of weather extremes in many regions of the world with potentially severe consequences for societies. But how can we gain a better quantitative understanding of these risks? In my presentation I would like to suggest a combination of process-based biophysical impact simulations and empirical models that may help us to understand how weather extremes translate into direct damages and reduction of economic growth. The approach allows for using the full process-understanding as e.g. represented in the biophysical impact models participating in the Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison project (ISIMIP, www.isimip.org) for future projections of societal impacts induced by changing patterns of weather extremes.