Precipitation extremes in many regions of the world are associated with the occurrence of extratropical cyclones (Pfahl and Wernli, 2012; see figure below). Future changes in cyclone occurrence may thus potentially lead to changes also in extreme precipitation, which can have important consequences for society.
In this thesis, a simple statistical method that quantifies the co-occurrence of cyclones and extreme precipitation (see again Pfahl and Wernli, 2012) will be applied to model simulations of present-day and future climate (Kay et al., 2015; Yetella and Kay, 2017) in order to asses if (i) the model is able to reproduce the observed relationship between cyclones and precipitation extremes and (ii) this relationship is projected to change in a warmer future climate.
Prerequisites for this project are an interest in climate change and extreme precipitation as well as the willingness to communicate in English, as one of the supervisors does not speak German. The thesis may still be written in German. First experience with a scripting language (R, python) that will be used for data analysis can be helpful, but may also be obtained during the project.
Supervisors: Stephan Pfahl, Edgar Dolores Tesillos
Note: Also eligible for Master thesis.