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Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts
Dauer des Projektes : Apr/2004 - Dec2009
Projektleitung : Prof. Ulrich Cubasch EMailPhone ++49-30-838-71217 (FAX 71160)
Mitarbeiter : Dipl. -Math. Ines Höschel EMail Phone ++49-30-838-71221 (Organisation/Experimente/Statistik)
Dr. Ingo Kirchner EMail Phone ++49-30-838-71151 (Modellierung)
Beschreibung des Projektes
Prediction of both natural climate variability and the human impact on climate is inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in forecast initial conditions, representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors. Hence, reliable estimates of climatic risk can only be made through ensemble integrations of Earth-system models in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated. For the first time, a common ensemble climate forecast system will be developed for use across a range of time scales (seasonal, decadal, and longer) and spatial scales (global, regional, and local). This model system will be used to construct integrated scenarios of future climate change, including both non-intervention and stabilization scenarios. This will provide a basis for quantitative risk assessment of climate change and climate variability, with emphasis on changes in extremes, including changes in storminess and precipitation and the severity and frequency of drought, and the effects of “surprises,” such as the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. Most importantly, the model system will be extensively validated. Hindcasts made by the model system for the 20th century will be compared against quality-controlled, high-resolution gridded datasets for Europe. Probability forecasts made with the model system on seasonal and decadal timescales will also be validated against existing data. The exploitation of the results will be maximized by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a wide range of applications.

Ergebnisse und Links

Der dritte Zwischenbericht des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change von 2001 kann auf folgender Webseite abgerufen werden: http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm(Third Assessment Report).