Landslides in a changing climate (LASLI)
Landslide processes in Central Europe are associated with high damage on road, railway and building infrastructure as well as casualties. While the general susceptibility to landslides is determined by geological and geophysical conditions, meteorological factors frequently determine the triggering of the hazard. High soil moisture preconditions, caused by rapid snow melt or abundant precipitation, followed by high intensity rainfall have been identified as important triggers.
The project will determine regional thresholds for combinations of meteorological factors controlling landslide frequency in Germany using a soil water balance and slope stability model as well as statistical approaches. The basis for all analyses are landslide records of the German landslide database, which compiles damage on infrastructure (road, railway, buildings) and casualties as well as controlling factors and triggers.
The results will be used to systematically deduce occurrence probabilities of relevant meteorological factors under present day and climate change conditions using an ensemble of regional climate simulations and to estimate the impacts on landslide frequency and magnitude.
LASLI is a subproject within ClimXtreme. It is conducted in collaboration with the research group Applied Physical Geography at the University of Vechta.