The project aims at providing practical knowledge and tools to water managers affected by climate change to better cope with climate projections and near-term climate predictions (decadal predictions). The work package led by the Institute of Meteorology of Freie Universität Berlin will particularly address hydrological extreme conditions within climate change scenarios and decadal climate predictions, focusing on six representative areas across Europe.

Teaser Blocking


Temperatur- und Niederschlagsvariabilitäten in Europa stehen oft im Zusammenhang mit Schwankungen der großräumigen atmosphärischen Zirkulation, zu denen ebenfalls blockierende Wetterlagen („Blocking-Situation“) gehören. Einige extreme Witterungsereignisse (z. B. Hitze-/Kälteperioden) werden durch stabile und meist stationäre Hochdruckgebiete, welche die zonale Strömung blockieren, hervorgerufen. Im Rahmen dieses Projekts sollen ein oder mehrere Indizes entwickelt werden, die solche ...

Aim of Calibration


This project aims at developing and implementing post-processing approaches for (re-)calibrating the MiKlip decadal prediction ensemble; addressing the typical problems encountered for decadal predictions, i.e. relatively small ensemble sizes and limited availability of hindcast-observation pairs. Starting with normally distributed variables, strategies will be specifically tailored to problems encounter for decadal predictions (model drift, climate trend). In a later stage, non-normally ...

ECO (MiKlip II)

ECO covers the coordination of the Module E; it integrates the individual evaluation efforts and organizes scientific exchanges with the other modules and WPs in MiKlip II. Stakeholder/end-user interaction required for the orientation of the evaluation system to end-user needs will be ensured in cooperation with module D, involving individual work packages as needed. Beside the coordination of Module E, ECO has following scientific contributions: As bias and drift correction become more ...

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Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World

A graduate research school with the University of Potsdam, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Helmholtz Centre Potsdam German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ. P3: Spatio-temporal response of extreme precipitation to climate change and decadal climate variability I1: Natural hazards in a changing climate – What causes the variability?

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Coupling a multiscale stochastic precipitation model to large-scale atmospheric flow is part of the Collaborative Research Center SFB1114: Scaling Cascades in Complex Systems. A stochastic precipitation model is investigated for means to be linked to atmospheric flow via the use of the Dynamic State Index (DSI).

STOC (MiKlip II)

This project investigates the relationship between the ocean state and European windstorms in the MiKlip decadal prediction system. Relevant oceanic variables and the associated time scales for windstorm development are identified. These results are the basis for the model validation of oceanic processes leading to European winter windstorm development (In cooperation with project VALOCEAN). STOC analyses how far the representation of the identified oceanic variables influences the forecast ...

Laufende Masterarbeiten:

  • Quantifying and adjusting drift in decadal predictions (Igor Kröner)

  • How to represent orographic effects in spatial extreme value statistics (Katharina Roth)

  • (Christian Passow)