Risik analysis

This work package identifies ‘hot spots’ in recent storm events of the Berlin conurbation using a risk analysis. Hot spots become obvious e.g. by high concentration of losses or number of affected people. They can indicate possible weak factors in risk management. Upcoming, this is tested by more detailed case studies. Additionally, the effectiveness of warnings is analysed. Case studies with issued warnings, but without events having occurred, are also regarded. Especially the warning chain will be reconstructed for all important cases, from the forecasting up to their usage. A special focus is set on spatial and temporal resolution of information.

All considerations base on the data and information background. Wind speed observations, forecasts, warning information and their usage, data of population, buildings, trees, losses, and emergency or technical aid operations are included to capture the situation as broad as possible. Innovative combination and common evaluation of these wide spread datasets allow thinking about how optimisation of warnings and their usage, as well as an improved prevention, can be reached in joint calibration with all stakeholders.

These changes are exemplary elaborated; they build a first step for practical implementation.  Proposals for optimisation of warnings’ usage are developed, tested, discussed by stakeholders und finally formulated in form of guidelines:

Which aspects characterise a “good warning” (for forecasters as well as for users) and what do realistic expectations of future warnings look like?

 

Further information: Tobias Heisterkamp