Dr. Tobias Pardowitz

Pardowitz_neu

Freie Universität Berlin

Institute of Meteorology

Research Area Leader in the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Project Coordinator

Address Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10
Room 173 (Altbau)
12165 Berlin
Telephone +49 30 838-71169
Fax +49 30 838-471169
Email tobias.pardowitz@met.fu-berlin.de

Research Interests

  • Impact Modeling
  • Impact- & Risk- Based Warnings
  • Forecast Uncertainty of Meteorological Extremes
  • Impacts of Climate Change
  • Extreme Value Statistics
  • Classifikation & Clustering

Academic Career

2015-now

Research Area Leader in the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research, Research Area "Optimal use of weather information from weather forecasting and climate monitoring for society", Freie Universität Berlin

2009-2014

Research Assistant at the Meteorological Institute, Freie Universität Berlin

2005-2008

Studyies of physics, University of Freiburg

2004-2005

Studyies of physics and computer sciences, University of Warwick, UK

2002-2004

Studyies of physics, University of Jena

 

Ongoing & Past Projects

2015-2018 Weather warnings: from EXtreme event Information to COMmunication and action (WEXICOM II)
2014-2017  Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather (RAIN)
2013-2014 Improving the process of weather warnings and extreme weather information in the chain from the meteorological forecasts to their communication for the Berlin conurbation (WEXICOM)
2011-2012 Large-Scale European Flooding under Climate Change: Meteorological and Hydrological Conditions Translated to Economic Loss  (EuFloLoss)
2010-2012 Anthropogenic Influence on Storm Climate over Europe and possible impacts for the State Hesse  (ABS-Hessen)
2009-2011 Impact of climate change on the loss situation in the German insurance sector (GdV-Projekt)

 

Peer-reviewed

2016

Pardowitz, T., R. Osinski, T. Kruschke, U. Ulbrich, 2016: Uncertainties in Forecasts of Winter Storm Losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-182 (pdfin review

Pardowitz, T., D. J. Befort, G. C., Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, 2016: Estimating uncertainties from high resolution simulations of extreme wind storms and consequences for impacts, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, http://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0582 (pdf)

2015

Pardowitz, T., T. Kox, M. Göber, A. Bütow, 2015: Human estimates of warning uncertainty: numerical and verbal descriptions, Mausam, Vol. 66 (3), p. 625-634. (pdf)

Wapler, K., F. Harnisch, T. Pardowitz, F.Senf, 2015: Characterisation and predictability of a strong and a weak forcing severe convective event - a multi-data approach, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 24 No. 4, p. 393-410. http://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2015/0625 (pdf)

2014

Nied, M., T. Pardowitz,K. Nissen, U. Ulbrich, Y. Hundecha, B. Merz, 2014: On the relationship between hydro-meteorological patterns and flood types, Journal of Hydrology, Vol 519, Pt. D, p. 3249-3262. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.089 (pdf)

2013

Held, H., F.W. Gerstengarbe, T. Pardowitz, J.G. Pinto, U. Ulbrich, K. Born, M.G. Donat, M.K. Karremann, G.C. Leckebusch, P. Ludwig, K. Nissen, H. Oesterle, B.F. Prahl, P.C. Werner, D.J. Befort, O.  Burghoff, 2013: Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector, Climatic Change, 121, 195-207, http://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0872-7 (pdf)

Gerstengarbe, F.W., P.C. Werner, H. Österle, T. Pardowitz, O.Burghoff, 2013: Winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events with regard to climate change in Germany, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 114, 715-724, http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0843-y (pdf) [An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0878-0 (pdf)]

2011

Donat, M.G., T. Pardowitz, G.C.Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, O. Burghoff, 2011: High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 2821-2833, http://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2821-2011 (pdf)

Book chapter

Ulbrich, U., Pardowitz, T., 2012: Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der Vorhersage von Gefahren durch Extremwetterereignisse, Perspektiven der Sicherheitsforschung. Beiträge aus dem Forschungsforum Öffentliche Sicherheit. Frankfurt/M.: Peter Lang Verlag, Gerhold, L. & Schiller, J. (Hrsg.).

Dissertation

Pardowitz, T., 2014: Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms, Freie Universität Berlin, 151p. (pdf)

Conference paper

2016

Pardowitz, T., Kox. T., 2016: Verwertung von Impact-Daten für die Analyse von Extremwetter. 29th Meeting of AK Naturgefahren/Naturrisiken, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Geographie (DGfG). 15-16 September 2016, Bonn, Germany

Pardowitz, T., Heisterkamp, T., Göber, M., Ulbrich, U., 2016: Modellierung wetterbedingter Einsätze der Berliner Feuerwehr, DACH Meteorologentagung, 14-18 March 2016, Berlin, Germany (abstract)

Pardowitz, T., Osinski, R., Ulbrich, U., 2016: Uncertainties in forecasts of windstorm losses, DACH Meteorologentagung, 14-18 March 2016, Berlin, Germany (abstract)

Göber, M., Pardowitz, T., Heisterkamp, H., Fleischhut, N., Kox, T., Ulbrich, T., Büser, T., 2016: WEXICOM - Wetterwarnungen: von der Extremereignis-Information zur Kommunikation und Handlung, DACH Meteorologentagung, 14-18 March 2016, Berlin, Germany (abstract)

2015

Pardowitz, T., Heisterkamp, T., Göber, M., Ulbrich, U., 2015: Prediction of weather related fire brigade operations on the basis of nowcasting data, 15th EMS Annual Meeting & 12th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), 07–11 September 2015, Sofia, Bulgaria (abstract)

Pardowitz, T., Osinski, R., Ulbrich, U., 2015: Predictability of Winter Storm Damages, 15th EMS Annual Meeting & 12th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), 07–11 September 2015, Sofia, Bulgaria (abstract)

Göber, M., Kox, T., Pardowitz, T., 2015: To Warn or not to Warn: That is the risky question! Perspectives on uncertainty in weather warnings, 5th Workshop on European Storms, 31 August –2 September 2015, University of Bern, Switzerland (abstract)

Ulbrich, U., Pardowitz, T., Osinski, R., 2015: A Probabilistic View on Winter Storm Damages, 5th Workshop on European Storms, 31 August –2 September 2015, University of Bern, Switzerland (abstract)

Wapler, K., Pardowitz, T., Senf, F., 2015: Characterisation of severe convective events using a multi-data approach, 8th European Conference on Severe Storms, Wiener Neustadt, Austria, 14-18 September 2015 (abstract)

2014

Nissen, K., Nied, M., Pardowitz, T., Ulbrich, U., Merz, B., 2014: A new concept to study the effect of climate change on different flood types, EGU General Assembly 27 April – 02 May 2014, Vienna (abstract)
[http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2014/EGU2014-5762.pdf]

Göber, M., Pardowitz, T., Bütow, A., Kox, T., 2014: Verification of the linguistic uncertainty of warning uncertainty, 6th WMO International Verification Methods Workshop, 13-19 March 2014, New Delhi, India (abstract)

Pardowitz, T., Göber, M., Ulbrich, U., 2014: Predictability of winter storm damages, World Weather Open Science Conference 2014, 16-21 August 2014, Montreal, Kanada (abstract)

Göber, M. Pardowitz, T., Kox, T., 2014: Verification of the linguistic uncertainty of warning uncertainty, World Weather Open Science Conference 2014, 16-21 August 2014, Montreal, Kanada (abstract)

2013

Nissen, K., Pardowitz, T., Ulbrich, U. and Nied, M., 2013: Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin? European Geosciences Union General Assembly 07-12 April 2013, Vienna, Austria (abstract)

Ulbrich, T., Göber, M., Heisterkamp, T., Kox, T., Pardowitz, T. Ulbrich, H.U. and Ulbrich, U., 2013: The WEXICOM project: weather warning information and its communication, 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), Reading, United Kingdom (abstract)

Göber, M. and Pardowitz, T., 2013: What is the uncertainty of weather warnings? Can we predict it? How can this uncertainty estimate be used?, 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), Reading, United Kingdom (abstract)

Pardowitz, T., Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., 2013: Reducing uncertainties in regional projections of future winter storm losses in Germany, 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), Reading, United Kingdom (abstract)

2012

Held, H., F.-W. Gerstengarbe, F. Hattermann, J. G. Pinto, U. Ulbrich, U. Böhm, K. Born, M. Büchner, M. G. Donat, M. Kücken, G. C. Leckebusch, K. Nissen, T. Nocke, H. Österle, T. Pardowitz, P. C. Werner, O. Burghoff, U. Broecker, and A. Kubik, 2012: Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario, EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, EGU2012-5808 (abstract)

Nied, M., T. Pardowitz, K. Nissen, Y. Hundecha, B. Merz, and U. Ulbrich, 2012: Elbe floods: An interaction of hydrological and meteorological (pre-)conditions, EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, EGU2012-5188 (abstract)

Kubik, A., U. Boehm, K. Born, U. Broecker, M. Buechner, O. Burghoff, M. Donat, F.W. Gerstengarbe, F.F. Hattermann, H. Held, M. Kuecken, G.C. Leckebusch, P. Ludwig, T. Nocke, H. Oesterle, T. Pardowitz, J.G. Pinto, B.F. Prahl, U. Ulbrich, and P.C. Werner, 2012: Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector, EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, EGU2012-12126 (abstract)

Pardowitz, T., Nissen, K.M., Ulbrich, U., Nied, M., 2012: Weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin, EGU Topical Meeting - Floods and climate, Potsdam, GER

2011

Pardowitz, T., M.G. Donat, D. Renggli, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2011: Non stationary extreme value analysis of wind storms over Europe - An ensemble study, 11th EMS / 10th ECAM, Berlin, EMS2011-578 (abstract)

Pardowitz, T., G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2011: Circulation weather types for Europe related to storminess in the state of Hesse, EGU General Assembly 2011, Vienna, EGU2011-3297 (abstract)

Leckebusch, G.C., T. Pardowitz, U. Ulbrich, M.G. Donat, O. Burghoff, U. Bröcker, and A. Kubik, 2011: On the use of synthetic insurance data in extra-tropical storm loss estimations with high regional resolution, EGU General Assembly 2011, Vienna, EGU2011-12104 (abstract)

Donat, M.G., T. Pardowitz, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2011: Estimating the risk of losses caused by winter storms in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2011, Vienna, EGU2011-5141 (abstract)

Leckebusch, G.C., T. Kruschke, P. Lorenz, T. Pardowitz, D. Renggli, J. Lange, D.J. Befort, K. Nissen, U. Ulbrich, 2011: Detection and assessment of severe, damage prone wind fields caused by severe cyclones in mid-latitudes, tropics and polar regions, RACEWIN-Workshop on European Storms 2011, Exeter (UK)

Pardowitz, T., 2011: Meteorologische Extremereignisse und ihre Auswirkungen, 10. DMG/GFZ Herbstschule System Erde: Leben und Naturgefahren im System Erde, Potsdam, GER (Programm)

2010

Pardowitz, T., G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2010: Anthropogene Beeinflussung des Sturmklimas über Europa und mögliche Folgen für spezifische Regionen am Beispiel des Bundeslandes Hessen, DACH Tagung, 2010, Bonn, DACH2010-315 (abstract)

Pardowitz, T., M.G. Donat, T. Kruschke, D. Renggli, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2010: Severe European Wind Storms in RCM ensemble simulations, EGU General Assembly 2010, Vienna, EGU2010-14558 (abstract)

Pardowitz, T., K. Eichhorn, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, 2010: Evaluation of simulated wind speeds from different model versions of (COSMO) CLM, 5th CLM-Community Assembly, 2010, Berlin

Donat M.G., T. Pardowitz, D. Befort, G.C. Leckebusch and U. Ulbrich, 2010: CCLM-ensemble simulations of wind storm episodes, 5th CLM-Community Assembly, 2010, Berlin

Donat, M.G., T. Pardowitz, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2010: Schäden durch schwere Winterstürme in Deutschland unter heutigen und zukünftigen Klimabedingungen, DACH Tagung, 2010, Bonn, DACH2010-280 (abstract)

Leckebusch, G.C., T. Pardowitz; D. Renggli; M. Donat; U. Ulbrich, 2010: Possible Future Changes of the Statistics of Severe Extra-tropical Storms over the North Pacific from a Multi-model Ensemble, Eos Trans. AGU, 91(26), West. Pac. Geophys. Meet. Suppl., Abstract A54A-02, Taipai, Taiwan.

Leckebusch, G.C., T. Pardowitz, M.G. Donat, D. Renggli, T. Kruschke, and U. Ulbrich, 2010: Multi-model ensemble extreme value analysis of European storm events, EGU General Assembly 2010, Vienna, EGU2010-12128 (abstract)

2009

Leckebusch, G.C., M.G. Donat, T. Pardowitz, D. Befort, U. Ulbrich, J.G. Pinto, K. Born, 2009: Wind storm in CCLM ensemble simulations, 4th CLM-Community Assembly, 2009, Karlsruhe